The U.S. Open has not been immune to the longshot winner in recent years
By Patrick McDonald
• 3 min read
Scottie Scheffler heads into the 2024 U.S. Open as the clear-cut favorite to snatch the third major championship of the year. A winner in five of his last eight tournaments, the world No. 1 has widened the gap between himself and the rest of the game. While many prognosticators are suggesting this championship is over before it has even started, Scheffler has been outplayed in his losses and not necessarily by household names.
Davis Riley and Stephan Jaeger are among the two players to win when Scheffler has teed it up since the beginning of spring. Their victories give hope to others that this U.S. Open could mirror a couple recent ones including last year's when an 80-1 Wyndham Clark broke through for his maiden major triumph.
Clark was already a winner at a signature event in 2023 when he raised the trophy at Los Angeles Country Club, so he didn't necessarily come out of left field. Without much major success in his corner, Clark proved one does not need to check all the boxes coming into the week to be the last man standing Sunday evening.
Matt Fitzpatrick had prior knowledge of The Country Club when he won for the first time in the United States as a professional at the 2022 U.S. Open. The Englishman wasn't among the favorites that week listed around 40-1, though he was a popular selection given his ties to the course. His win could be an indicator that players like Rickie Fowler and Jason Day may find success this week like they did in 2014 the last time the U.S. Open was played at Pinehurst.
So, while Scheffler's supremacy may well continue in North Carolina, there is a roughly 75% implied probability that it does not. That means someone unexpected could walk away from Pinehurst with the U.S. Open trophy in hand.
2024 U.S. Open predictions: Sleepers
| 1 | Hideki Matsuyama |
| Matsuyama is among the leaders in proximity from over 200 yards, bogey avoidance and strokes gained around the green -- all of which will be important at Pinehurst. The major champion has slowed since his torrid start to 2024 playing only three times since the Masters, but he flashed signs at Memorial that his game (and his health) are close to, if not, 100%. He's made seven straight cuts in the U.S. Open, including a runner-up finish in 2017 and a backdoor top five at The Country Club two years ago. Odds: 55-1 | |
| 2 | Tony Finau |
| After a somewhat forgettable spring, Finau is beginning to find his stride. A top-10 finish at Jack's place marked his first since the end of March and could be a sign of things to come this week at Pinehurst. One of the best iron players in the game, Finau has started to match his ball-striking prowess with a little short-game magic. His major championship results have been poor over the last handful of years, but he has shown he is capable on this stage as noted by a couple top 10s in this championship. Odds: 65-1 | |
| 3 | Sahith Theegala |
| Theegala was among our sleeper selections at the PGA Championship, and he finds himself featured once again at the U.S. Open. Playing in the penultimate pairing Sunday, the free-swinging right hander experienced his first taste of major contention before falling off the pace to a T12 finish. A nice result at Memorial has set the stage for Theegala's arrival at Pinehurst where his creativity and shot making should allow him to get in the mix. Odds: 70-1 | |
| 4 | Russell Henley |
| A second-shot golf course that requires some serious stones around the green should be right up Henley's alley. Henley is among a three-man group -- Scheffler and Matsuyama included -- who can say they rank inside the top 10 in both strokes gained approach and strokes gained around the green over the last year. While the scorecard yardage may be a bit intimidating, Henley has shown his accuracy off the tee is always a weapon. He has a pair of top 15s in the last three U.S. Opens. Odds: 100-1 | |
| 5 | Alex Noren |
| The former top-10 player in the world has been quietly one of the most consistent players on the planet in 2024. Noren rattled off eight straight top 25s at one point this season thanks to gaining strokes across the board. Always reliable on and around the green, Noren's improvement with the irons could lead him into contention at Pinehurst. The U.S. Open has not been kind to him in the past, but he does boast a could top 25s in his last five appearances. Odds: 150-1 | |
Who will win the U.S. Open, and which longshots will stun the golfing world?Visit SportsLine to see the projected U.S. Open leaderboard, all from the model that's nailed 12 golf majors, including the last three Masters and the 2024 PGA Championship.
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