Is Caleb Williams in the best situation for a top-pick QB? We ranked the best over 30-plus years (2024)

It's hard to predict the effectiveness of first-round rookie quarterbacks. Even No. 1 picks often struggle, as Bryce Young did last season. But many of those issues are due to being drafted by bad teams lacking playmakers. Other quarterbacks are drafted into good situations with veteran playmakers ready to help them succeed.

It seems as if the Chicago Bears' Caleb Williams was gifted one of those good situations. It's an ideal one, in fact, with receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen there to catch his passes along with Rome Odunze, the Bears' other top-10 pick.

But was Williams placed into the best situation for a quarterback taken early in the NFL draft in recent history? To answer that question, I looked at every QB selected in the top 12 picks since 1990 (which includes this year's first-round passers), plus three No. 1 picks from the 1980s. Quarterbacks were judged based on the roster the year they were drafted even if they didn't play as a rookie. From there, I came up with three sets of rankings -- five best situations for No. 1 picks, 10 best situations for highly drafted first-round QBs and five worst scenarios for highly drafted first-rounders.

Where does Williams' current setup with the Bears fall on the list? Can that supporting cast be topped? Let's dive in.

Jump to a section:
Best No. 1 pick situations | Best top-12 situations
Worst top-12 situations

Best situations for No. 1 picks

5. Jameis Winston, 2015 Buccaneers

The Bucs went 2-14 the year before they drafted Winston despite having two 1,000-yard receivers: second-year man Mike Evans (who also had 12 touchdowns) and veteran Vincent Jackson (who had only two scores). Louis Murphy was a reasonable third receiver, although fourth receiver Adam Humphries was an undrafted rookie. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins had 21 receptions for 221 yards and two touchdowns in only nine games as a rookie. The Buccaneers had a three-headed running back committee consisting of Doug Martin, Bobby Rainey and Charles Sims.

The 2015 Bucs tied the 1998 Colts (who drafted Peyton Manning) in my values, and I almost went with Indianapolis because it had Marshall Faulk and a young Marvin Harrison. Offensive line was the tiebreaker, as the Bucs had multiple-time Pro Bowler Logan Mankins at left guard and drafted left tackle Donovan Smith early in Round 2.

Winston ultimately threw 22 touchdown passes and totaled 4,042 passing yards as a rookie.

4. Eli Manning, 2004 Giants

The Giants were led by two veteran wide receivers in Amani Toomer (63-1,057-5 in 2003) and Ike Hilliard (60-608-6). But the Giants made it into the top five because of their tight end and running back.

The tight end was Jeremy Shockey, who had 535 yards in a half-season after compiling 894 yards as a rookie in 2002. The main running back, Tiki Barber, rushed for 1,216 yards in 2003 while adding 69 receptions for 461 yards. He was paired with Ron Dayne, who missed 2003 with an injury but gained 428 yards and three touchdowns in 2002.

Manning would play in nine games in 2004, completing just 48.2% of his throws as he adjusted to the pro game.

3. Joe Burrow, 2020 Bengals

Burrow was gifted an impressive trio of receivers. A.J. Green missed 2019 due to injuries but made the Pro Bowl in his first seven seasons (2011-17) before gaining 694 yards with six touchdowns over nine games in 2018. No. 2 receiver Tee Higgins was the first pick in the second round, while slot receiver Tyler Boyd caught 90 passes for 1,046 yards and five touchdowns as the top option in 2019. There was even hope that 2017 first-round pick John Ross might emerge. (He didn't.)

Tight end Drew Sample was a second-round pick in 2019 who still had plenty of potential. At running back, the Bengals had star Joe Mixon (278 carries, 1,137 yards, five touchdowns) as well as change-up back Giovani Bernard (404 yards from scrimmage).

In that first season, Burrow threw 13 touchdown passes and five interceptions before a knee injury ended his rookie campaign.

2. Matthew Stafford, 2009 Lions

Calvin Johnson is the greatest No. 1 receiver ever handed to a quarterback selected first overall. The Lions supplemented him with free agent signings Bryant Johnson (45-546-3 with San Francisco) and Dennis Northcutt (44-545-2 with Jacksonville), along with third-round pick Derrick Williams.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew was also a first-round pick (No. 20) in 2009. Running back Kevin Smith was coming off a strong rookie season (976 rushing yards and eight touchdowns) and was paired with free agent veteran Maurice Morris (574 yards rushing for Seattle).

Stafford would play in 10 games but threw 20 interceptions, the most of any season in his career to date.

1. Caleb Williams, 2024 Bears

Yes, Williams easily has the best situation of any quarterback chosen No. 1, at least since 1980. In my value estimates, the difference between the Bears' skill players and the 2009 Lions is roughly the same as the gap between the Lions and the No. 12 team (Jeff George and the 1990 Colts).

We'll start with DJ Moore, who has cracked 1,000 receiving yards in four of the past five seasons and is coming off career highs with 1,364 yards and eight touchdowns in 2023. Then comes Keenan Allen, who had 1,000 receiving yards in five of the past seven seasons for the Chargers and had 1,243 yards and seven touchdowns in only 13 games last season. The Rome Odunze pick makes Williams the first quarterback picked No. 1 to play with a first-round wide receiver from the same draft.

At tight end, the Bears will have both Cole Kmet (73-719-6 in 2023) and Gerald Everett (51-411-3 for the Chargers last season). The starting running back, D'Andre Swift, had 1,049 yards and five touchdowns for the Eagles and will be backed up by last year's Bears starter, Khalil Herbert. Even the offensive line is better than you think -- it was fifth in pass block win rate and second in run block win rate last season.

play

Can the Bears make the playoffs after drafting Caleb Williams?

Tim Hasselbeck explains how difficult it will be for the Bears to make the playoffs in a strong NFC North.

Best situations for top-12 picks

10. Jay Cutler, 2006 Broncos (No. 11 pick)

The Broncos handed a huge contract to former Packers receiver Javon Walker, who missed most of 2005 to injury but caught 89 passes for 1,382 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2004. Veteran Rod Smith was entering his final season but made the Pro Bowl with 85 catches for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns in 2005. The third receiver was fourth-round rookie Brandon Marshall, and the main tight end was second-rounder Tony Scheffler. The Broncos cut 1,000-yard running back Mike Anderson before the season but still had Tatum Bell, who had 173 carries for 921 yards and eight touchdowns in 2005.

Cutler would throw nine TD passes over five games in that first season.

9. Philip Rivers, 2004 Chargers (No. 4)

Let's start with LaDainian Tomlinson, one of the greatest running backs of all time. Tomlinson led the NFL with 2,370 scrimmage yards in 2003 and was only 25, easily making him the best running back to play with a top-12 rookie QB.

Keenan McCardell, a 34-year-old who had 1,174 yards and eight touchdowns in Tampa Bay, was signed to be the No. 1 receiver. The tight end was a young Antonio Gates, who had 24 catches for 389 yards and two touchdowns as a rookie but had considerable potential that he soon realized.

Things fall off from there. The other starting receiver was third-year former UDFA Eric Parker, who had just 244 yards and three touchdowns the year before. Third receiver Kassim Osgood had 13 catches for 278 yards and two TDs, and No. 4 receiver Reche Caldwell had only eight catches for 80 yards. (Rivers threw only eight passes in 2004.)

8. Patrick Mahomes, 2017 Chiefs (No. 10)

Mahomes sat nearly all of his rookie season, but the situation was solid. Tight end Travis Kelce (85 catches for 1,125 yards and four TDs) made his first All-Pro team in 2016. Receiver Tyreek Hill had 61 catches for 593 yards and six touchdowns as a rookie along with 267 rushing yards and three more touchdowns, plus was first-team All-Pro as a returner. The other receivers were Chris Conley (44-530-0 in 2016), Albert Wilson (31-279-2) and Demarcus Robinson, a 2016 fourth-round pick who didn't have a target as a rookie.

Running back Spencer Ware had 1,368 scrimmage yards with five touchdowns, although a preseason injury sidelined him for 2017. He was backed up by Charcandrick West (88-293-1 rushing plus 28-188-2 receiving) and third-round rookie Kareem Hunt.

7. Joe Burrow, 2020 Bengals (No. 1)

6. Matthew Stafford, 2009 Lions (No. 1)

5. Justin Fields, 2021 Bears (No. 11)

It has been argued that the Bears didn't adequately help Fields before trading for Moore in 2023, but if you go back and look at what Chicago had when Fields arrived, it's actually pretty good.

No. 1 receiver Allen Robinson II compiled 102 catches for 1,250 yards and six touchdowns in 2020. Darnell Mooney had 61 catches for 631 yards and four touchdowns as a rookie. The Bears acquired Damiere Byrd, who had 47 catches for 604 yards and a touchdown in New England the year before, to be their No. 3 receiver. The Bears also brought in Marquise Goodwin, who missed 2020 in a COVID-19 opt-out but had 395 yards and four touchdowns in 11 games for the 2018 49ers.

Tight end Jimmy Graham was 35 years old but caught 50 passes for 456 yards and eight touchdowns in 2020. Kmet didn't do much as a rookie (28-243-2) but had a lot of potential entering his second season. Running back David Montgomery was coming off 1,508 scrimmage yards with 10 touchdowns -- and his backup, Damien Williams, opted out of 2020 but starred for the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV.

I dropped the Bears a spot because of offensive line issues, but that was a pretty good group of skill players. Fields would play in 12 games, throwing seven TD passes and 10 interceptions (and rushing for two scores).

4. J.J. McCarthy, 2024 Vikings (No. 10)

McCarthy starts his career with a great pair of receivers. Justin Jefferson might be the best receiver in the league right now, while Jordan Addison had 70 catches for 911 yards and 10 touchdowns as a rookie. After that, Brandon Powell and Trent Sherfield are trustworthy veterans.

Tight end T.J. Hockenson had a career-high 960 receiving yards last season despite missing the final two games. Running back Aaron Jones comes over from the rival Packers, and although he had only 656 rushing yards in 11 games last season, he did have 1,121 in 2022. Backup Ty Chandler had 461 rushing yards on 4.5 yards per carry in 2023.

The Vikings' offensive line is very strong, particularly with tackles Christian Darrisaw and Brian O'Neill. McCarthy is set up for success as soon as he enters the starting lineup.

3. Matt Leinart, 2006 Cardinals (No. 10)

Starting receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin each had more than 1,400 receiving yards in 2005. The Cardinals also signed running back Edgerrin James after he ran for 1,506 yards and 13 touchdowns in 2005 for the Colts.

The playmakers fell off after those three, though. The other receivers were Bryant Johnson (40-432-1) and Troy Walters (14-152-3 in Indianapolis). The tight ends were third-round rookie Leonard Pope and second-year UDFA Adam Bergen, who had 28 catches for 270 yards and a touchdown as a rookie. Leinart would ultimately throw 11 TDs and 12 interceptions over 12 games in Year 1.

2. Caleb Williams, 2024 Bears (No. 1)

1. Daunte Culpepper, 1999 Vikings (No. 11)

Randy Moss, Cris Carter and Jake Reed at receiver! Robert Smith and Leroy Hoard at running back! Even tight end Andrew Glover had 522 receiving yards and five touchdowns in 1998. Plus, three Minnesota offensive linemen made the Pro Bowl in 1998. There has never been a first-round quarterback drafted into an offense as good as the one Culpepper joined in 1999. Culpepper, however, did not throw a pass in his rookie season.

Worst situations for top-12 picks

5. David Klingler, 1992 Bengals (No. 6)

Longtime stalwart receiver Eddie Brown had just retired, leaving veteran Tim McGee (51-802-4 in 1991) as the No. 1 receiver. The No. 2 was Carl Pickens, a rookie picked early in Round 2. No. 3 receiver Jeff Query had just seven catches for 94 yards for the Packers in 1991, although he had a better season (34-458-2) in 1990.

Tight end Rodney Holman (31-445-2) was 32 years old and backed up by fifth-round rookie Craig Thompson. At running back, James Brooks left and Ickey Woods was struggling with injuries. That made fullback Harold Green (158-731-2) the main runner, followed by halfback Eric Ball, a 1989 second-round pick who had a combined 93 rushing yards on 32 carries the previous two seasons.

Mark Sanchez and the 2009 Jets could have been on this list, but New York's offensive line was too good, as Alan Faneca and Nick Mangold were Pro Bowlers in 2008. So Klingler's Bengals edge Sanchez and the Jets. Klingler played in only four games in 1992.

4. Ryan Leaf, 1998 Chargers (No. 2)

The Chargers' leading receiver from 1997, Tony Martin, was traded. The No. 2 Charger in receiving yards, running back Eric Metcalf, was sent to Arizona as part of the deal that allowed San Diego to move up for Leaf. That left the QB with tight end Freddie Jones, who had 41 catches for 505 yards and two touchdowns, as his top option.

The top two wideouts, Charlie Jones and Bryan Still, combined for 56 catches, 747 yards and just one touchdown in 1997. The third wideout was second-round rookie Mikhael Ricks, who eventually moved to tight end. Webster Slaughter came out of retirement at age 34 to be the fourth wideout.

The running backs kept this group from ranking worse, as the Chargers brought back Natrone Means after he had 823 rushing yards and nine touchdowns for the Jaguars and paired him with incumbent receiving back Terrell Fletcher. (Leaf threw two TD passes to 15 interceptions as a rookie.)

3. Kerry Collins, 1995 Panthers (No. 5)

Expansion time! Top receiver Mark Carrier (29-452-5 in 1994) came over from Cleveland in the expansion draft. Free agent signing Willie Green was the other starter. He had only nine catches for 150 yards for the Buccaneers in 1994 but did have 450 or more receiving yards each season for Detroit from 1991 to 1993. The third receiver was veteran Don Beebe, who averaged 525 yards receiving the previous three seasons in Buffalo.

Carolina's big free agent signing on offense was former Bills tight end Pete Metzelaars (49-428-5). Week 1 running back Randy Baldwin had just 78 yards on 23 carries for the Browns. The eventual rushing leader, Derrick Moore, had only 27 carries for 52 yards for the Lions (although he somehow scored four touchdowns). Collins would manage 2,717 yards, 15 TD passes and 19 interceptions with this unit in that first season.

2. Drew Bledsoe, 1993 Patriots (No. 1)

This group turned out to be better than what it had shown before 1993 -- particularly tight end Ben Coates, who had only 20 catches for 171 yards and three touchdowns in 1992 before breaking out. The other tight end, Marv Cook, made the Pro Bowl the year before with 52 catches for 413 yards and two touchdowns.

Wide receiver looked like a big issue after veteran Irving Fryar was traded to Miami. The top receiver was second-round rookie Vincent Brisby. He was followed by young veterans Greg McMurtry (35-424-1) and Michael Timpson (26-315-1) and undrafted rookie Ray Crittenden. Starting running back Leonard Russell gained only 390 rushing yards on 123 carries with two touchdowns in 1992, while fullback Kevin Turner had 92 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns.

In 1993, Bledsoe completed just 49.9% of his throws, but he did have 15 TD passes over 13 games.

1. David Carr, 2002 Texans (No. 1)

This is arguably the worst collection of talent any young quarterback has been forced to play with right out of the gate. The offensive line was a wreck, which heavily contributed to the 76 sacks Carr took as a rookie. No. 1 receiver Corey Bradford (31-526-2 in 2001) signed from Green Bay in free agency, while his starting partner, Jabar Gaffney, was a second-round rookie. JaJuan Dawson (22-281-1 with Cleveland) and Avion Black (8-90-0 with Buffalo) were the other receivers. Jermaine Lewis, who had legendary returns for the 2000 Ravens, never established himself on offense.

The tight ends -- Billy Miller, a 1999 seventh-round pick of the Broncos, and Jabari Holloway, a 2001 fourth-round pick of the Patriots -- had minimal NFL playing experience. Starting running back Jonathan Wells was a fourth-round rookie, while his counterpart, James Allen, was coming off 672 scrimmage yards and two touchdowns for the Bears.

Carr would throw nine TDs and 15 INTs over the course of his rookie season.