Racing: Bookies stand to take a hiding - NZ Herald (2024)

By MIKE DILLON

Australian bookmakers have re-named the A$3 million Cox Plate favourite the USS Lonhro.

They say the Sydney champ will sink a few of them to the bottom if he proves as unbeatable as he looks on paper in Australia's greatest weight-for-age race tomorrow.

Mummify's well-supported Caulfield Cup win last weekend blew the bottom out of a lot of bookmakers' betting bags and a Lonhro victory would be a financial disaster for them.

Said one: "The ones hit are those of us who have bet on doubles. For example, we've all given Lonhro at $5 in the first leg of the Cox Plate-Melbourne Cup doubles whereas he's now at $1.50.

"In the first charts, the Lonhro double into Mummify in the Melbourne Cup was $125 - it's now $10."

Rain would be their saviour.

Lonhro has failed in his only two starts in heavy conditions. He has won twice on soft tracks, but both times they were sprints in non-feature events.

The StrathAyr surface at Moonee Valley drains remarkably and is unlikely to be a disadvantage to any runner.

Late yesterday the weather bureau changed the forecast from showers to fine today and tomorrow with the possibility of the odd shower, turning to rain Sunday.

That is bad news for the punters who rushed to back Epsom Handicap winner Clangalang when heavy rain arrived in Melbourne on Tuesday.

Clangalang's jockey, Corey Brown, rides a lot for the Lonhro stable of John Hawkes and says his mount can beat the champ on a rain-affected track.

What could count against Lonhro more than track conditions is the way they run Cox Plates. It might be Australia's most glamorous weight-for-age race, but it is almost always a slog.

Lonhro is a sit-and-sprint horse and he certainly won't get the opportunity to do that in a race in which you cannot remember the last time they did not pour on white-hot pressure at least 900m out.

Northerly and Sunline are the two best gut-busting racehorses you've seen for a long time and it is five years since something other than that pair has won a Cox Plate.

And immediately before them the iron-hard Might And Power took the race.

Last year, when Lonhro was not as mature as he is now to be fair, the champ started equal favourite with Northerly and ran a shocker, finishing seventh lengths away in sixth place.

But punters and bookies are taking no notice of that and at $1.50 Lonhro will become the shortest-priced favourite to win the Cox Plate since Kingston Town won the first of his three Cox Plates in 1980.

The warning sign was released at Sandown on Wednesday morning when South African mare Paraca produced her final gallop.

As she had done previously, Paraca went out extremely fast in her workout, unable to be held by her rider, and had nothing left in the final stages.

Nash Rawiller, the frustrated rider, said: "No question, she'll lead the Cox Plate field by seven lengths, but she'll run herself out of puff."

There is no doubt that will make it a tough race. Whatever takes over when Paraca gives in will sprint hard from that stage.

Trevor McKee knows what it takes to win a Cox Plate.

He was a visitor to the Breakfast With The Best at Moonee Valley on Tuesday, sitting with Northerly's trainer, Fred Kersley.

It is the first time in five years McKee has been to Moonee Valley in the spring without Sunline and rival trainers said they were pleased he and Kersley were unaccompanied.

McKee's trip was to receive the Moonee Valley's Kingston Town award for Sunline, the champion mare being just the third recipient after Bonecrusher and, last year, Tommy Smith.

McKee has yet to hear if Sunline has proved positive to the second service by Rock Of Gibraltar after being negative to her first visit.

He has strong opinions on the Cox Plate.

"If they sit and sprint, Lonhro is probably a good thing, but if they make it a grind then Clangalang, as a Derby winner, is a real show and so is Defier, who can grind well."

Bookmakers have been relying on Defier as the threat to Lonhro after his huge effort to finish second to Northerly last year.

But rain would put Defier out of business.

He has such a dislike of anything but a firm track that bookies have eased him out to $11, well short of the $6 they are offering about Clangalang.