Tennessee entered the 2023 season ranked No. 16 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite, which is as effective as anything available to assess the quality of the rosters of the teams competing in this sport of rosters in constant turmoil.
It will be higher entering 2024, right around where a team that aspires to compete in a 12-team College Football Playoff should be — that’s a guess based on where things are today, but a strong one, for a team that should have more meaningful addition than subtraction in the transfer portal windows to come. As Josh Heupel pointed out to reporters Wednesday in a news conference for what passes in these times as “national signing day,” the Vols made several key adds after last season’s Orange Bowl win over Clemson.
Head coach Josh Heupel at the mic to break down the #RockyTop24 signing class https://t.co/yFiJwp6Rqn
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) December 20, 2023
A day after Heupel made that point, Tulane freshman receiver Chris Brazzell — a highly sought 6-5 talent — committed to transfer to Tennessee, per 247Sports. It hasn’t been all good for Heupel since the 8-4 regular season ended, because he was in on some major high school prospects who signed elsewhere and because at least two guys who would start on Tennessee’s defense next season will start for two other SEC teams instead.
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Edge rusher Tyler Baron (Ole Miss), safety Tamarion McDonald (Ole Miss) and cornerback Doneiko Slaughter (Arkansas) are fascinating examples of the variety of situations today’s college coach encounters. Some players aren’t quite good enough to be prominent NFL picks, and may not be among the most valued of performers at a particular place, but can benefit from jumping into the portal and earning the attention of coaches who oversee lesser rosters. It’s not unlike NFL free agents. Many are overpaid.
And good for them. Hey, good for Lane Kiffin — his constant trolling of his former employer in Knoxville actually carries substance for once. And in the case of Baron and Slaughter, in particular, not great for Tennessee, even if the spin coming out of Knoxville suggests the Vols are upgrading.
That may be true. We’ll see. But it’s not spin to say the offseason scoreboard so far has Heupel winning.
None of the other portal losses hurt. The most heavily guarded — and presumably pursued — of players who could enter it have not done so. James Pearce, Dylan Sampson, Squirrel White, Jordan Matthews, Ethan Davis and others are on that list.
Running back Jaylen Wright’s departure for the NFL was expected and deserved. Heupel held onto his offensive tackles and stalwart center Cooper Mays. The Vols need to get better up front — this staff needs to start turning more of its recruited prospects into difference-makers on Saturdays. But that’s a baseline of stability in front of new starting quarterback Nico Iamaleava, with hope for improvement and competition to make it even stronger.
Linebacker Keenan Pili is coming back, too. The portal has yielded what should be starters in Oregon State cornerback Jermod McCoy and Notre Dame tight end Holden Staes. We’ve got transfer portal rankings to mind now as well, and 247Sports lifts Tennessee to No. 24 — pretty good considering just four transfers — with the commitment of Brazzell.
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The traditional recruiting class ranks No. 13 in the 247Sports Composite rankings. The service also ranks both things combined — of course it does! — and Tennessee comes in No. 11 there. SEC foes Georgia, Alabama, Texas, Auburn and Oklahoma rank higher. But Tennessee was lower on volume than many schools and high on average ranking per recruit.
This includes a pair of five-star signees in the class, receiver Mike Matthews (Lilburn, Ga.) and edge rusher Jordan Ross (Birmingham, Ala.) Matthews may be too good to keep off the field as a freshman, though that position and the secondary are like the offensive line at Tennessee — it’s time for more breakthroughs among guys Heupel and his staff have evaluated out of high school, signed and developed.
Already getting to work 😤#RockyTop24 | #GBO 🍊 pic.twitter.com/z8HLpOq4Fn
— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) December 20, 2023
Overall, though, it’s been a good offseason. Bordering on very good. And that’s not a gimme for any program that doesn’t exist in the top, tiny sliver of the sport.
“I think the hardest thing in today’s landscape is the uncertainty of the numbers,” Heupel said. “That can be with your entire roster (or) it can be with position groups. So, because of the portal, the recruitment of these guys, and I’m talking about the fact that kids will still be going into the portal here into January, you’re constantly evaluating your roster, where you’re at, what are the needs that you have? You’re looking for athletic traits. At times, you feel like you need experience. At times, you feel like there’s guys that are on campus that you need to develop and get them ready to play by the time that you kick off next year.”
The 247Sports Team Talent Composite entering the fall will be as accurate a glimpse as we’ll have at the rosters. In many cases, it will still be inaccurate.
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The 8-4 Vols’ No. 16 ranking entering the 2023 season will come close to their final ranking in the polls if they can get past the football fun police, also known as the 10-3 Iowa Hawkeyes, on Jan. 1 in the Citrus Bowl.
Some of the 2023 list jibes perfectly with the regular season we just witnessed. Alabama came in No. 1. Georgia was No. 2. Texas, finally breaking through in time to make the final four-team College Football Playoff, was No. 6.
And some of it reminds us of the limitations of this science. Texas A&M was No. 4. Clemson was No. 5. LSU was No. 7 — had someone told you in August that quarterback Jayden Daniels was embarking on a Heisman Trophy season with that roster and accomplished coach, would you have put them at 9-3 and in the ReliaQuest Bowl?
Of course not. And No. 14 Michigan and especially No. 26 Washington weren’t supposed to be as close as they are right now to winning a national championship.
Tennessee is collecting the talent to be in that position before too long. That’s if the gap is narrowed with five-star coaching, quarterbacking and intangibles.
(Photo of Josh Heupel: Eakin Howard / Getty Images)
Joe Rexrode is a senior staff writer for The Athletic covering all things Nashville and some things outside Nashville. He previously worked at The Tennessean, the Detroit Free Press and the Lansing State Journal, spending the past three years as sports columnist at The Tennessean. Follow Joe on Twitter @joerexrode
